It’s a widely recognized fact that the North Pole is undergoing some of its worst immediate changes as a result of climatic change. However, a new study suggests that the Arctic will face even worse consequences in the near future, revealing that the Arctic might be ice-free in 2035.
Researchers at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) revealed their discoveries about the future of the Arctic sea-ice on this week’s edition of the journal Nature Climate Change. They conducted their experiments by investigating the melting process of Arctic ice during the past interglacial, which is the warmest period of the last 200,000 years. The last interglacial occurred about 127,000 years ago.
According to BAS scientists, if the unfavorable change of climate and the emission of greenhouse gases is left unchecked, the Arctic will not contain any ice by September 2035. Every September, the temperature of the Arctic sea reaches its minimum temperature. However, considering other emissions, the disappearance of Arctic ice might occur between 2048 and 2086.
This discovery also aligns with another research conducted in April, which revealed that the North Pole will witness its first summer with no ice before 2050, even though the world would magically pull off a vast decrement of greenhouse emissions.
Dr. Maria Vittoria Guarino, the Earth System Modeller at BAS, stated that the great temperatures at the Arctic was a technical and scientific challenge for scientists. She continued: “For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic became sea ice-free during the last interglacial”. She explained that thanks to the advancements in climatic modelling, it’s possible to create more accurate simulations of Earth’s past climate, which in turn increases the accuracy and reliability of future climatic predictions.
Along with these models, the study emphasized on the significance of “melt ponds”, which are shallow water pools created on ice’s surface. Considering the significance of melt ponds for the procedure of decrement of sea-ice, the team were able to arrive at precise conclusions regarding the future climatic changes faced by the Arctic.
Many researches done earlier were also highly indicative of the severity of loss of sea ice. One study published in July revealed that temperatures in the Arctic Ocean between Canada, Russia, and Europe are warming up quicker than researchers’ climate models predicted.